Engine 10 — ETF Rotation

ETF Rotation

Engine 10 rotates across 30 curated US-listed ETFs using Antonacci-style dual momentum for monthly allocation and IBS/RSI(2) mean reversion for tactical dip-buying. A separate scanner discovers additional ETFs across US, European, and Asia-Pacific markets every 4 hours for expanded signal coverage.

Strategy 1: Dual Momentum Rotation

The foundation is dual momentum (Antonacci 2014) — combining relative strength with absolute momentum. Every month, we rank all 30 ETFs by 3-month total return (relative momentum) and apply an absolute momentum gate: only ETFs trading above their 200-day SMA are eligible.

The top 5 ETFs passing both filters receive equal-weight allocation ($5,000 each). If fewer than 5 qualify, the remainder rotates to SHY (short-term Treasuries) — providing built-in crash protection.

Relative Momentum = 3-Month Return (63 trading days)
Absolute Gate = Price > SMA(200)

Academic backing: Faber (2007) showed this SMA filter reduces maximum drawdown from ~50% to ~20% while maintaining returns. Antonacci (2014) documented dual momentum GEM with Sharpe ~0.8.

Strategy 2: IBS/RSI(2) Mean Reversion

Daily, we scan all 30 ETFs for deeply oversold conditions using two indicators simultaneously:

RSI(2) < 10

2-period RSI deeply oversold — Connors RSI adapted for ETFs. Historically followed by positive returns within 2-5 days.

IBS < 0.2

Internal Bar Strength showing close near the day’s low. IBS = (Close - Low) / (High - Low). Values below 0.2 indicate strong selling pressure that typically reverses.

Both must trigger simultaneously, with price above the 200-day SMA (same uptrend gate). Exit: price crosses above the 5-day SMA (typically 2-3 day hold). Stop: 3x ATR(14) below entry. Based on Pagonidis (2014) IBS research on equity ETFs.

The Universe (30 Curated ETFs)

Sector SPDRs (11)

  • XLK — Technology
  • XLF — Financials
  • XLE — Energy
  • XLV — Health Care
  • XLU — Utilities
  • XLI — Industrials
  • XLP — Consumer Staples
  • XLY — Consumer Disc.
  • XLC — Communication
  • XLB — Materials
  • XLRE — Real Estate

Broad Market (10)

  • SPY — S&P 500
  • QQQ — Nasdaq 100
  • IWM — Russell 2000
  • DIA — Dow 30
  • EFA — Int’l Developed
  • EEM — Emerging Markets
  • TLT — Long Treasury
  • GLD — Gold
  • SLV — Silver
  • HYG — High Yield

Thematic (9)

  • XBI — Biotech
  • KWEB — China Internet
  • VNQ — US REITs
  • USO — Crude Oil
  • UNG — Natural Gas
  • FXI — China Large-Cap
  • EWJ — Japan
  • EWZ — Brazil
  • SHY — Cash Proxy

Scanner: Expanded Signal Coverage

With 5,400+ ETFs globally, the curated 30 are just what we trade. Every 4 hours, a separate scanner service uses IBKR’s reqScannerData to discover liquid ETFs across three regions:

RegionScan CodesExpected Results
US (STK.US.MAJOR)6 codes (most active, gainers, losers, volume, 52-week extremes)~200 raw, ~120 unique
Europe (STK.EU)4 codes~100 raw, ~60 unique
Asia-Pacific (STK.HK.SEHK)3 codes~80 raw, ~50 unique

Candidates pass through our gates: liquidity (ADV > 500K), AUM ($500M+), momentum ranking, and entry criteria. Leveraged/inverse ETFs (2x/3x) are excluded — volatility decay makes them unsuitable. The top 20 that pass all gates are delivered as a single consolidated digest.

GateKeeper Integration

E10 mirrors the E2 MES (S&P 500 futures) regime:

TREND UP / RANGE

Full rotation active. All ETFs eligible for ranking and entry. MR scanning active.

TREND DOWN

Defensive bias: TLT, GLD, XLU, XLP receive a ranking bonus, naturally shifting allocation toward safe havens. MR still active.

CRISIS (VIX > 30)

Rotate to SHY/cash. All equity ETF entries paused. The SMA(200) gate provides additional crash protection independent of GateKeeper.

Signals You Receive

[TRADED + SIGNAL]

Monthly rotation rebalance (top 5 ETFs, weights, entries/exits) and daily MR entries from the curated 30. These trades are executed on our paper account.

[SIGNAL ONLY]

Scanner digest with momentum leaders (top 15) and MR candidates from the expanded universe, plus NAV premium/discount flow signals. One consolidated embed per cycle.

Disclaimer

GateSig is an information-only service. Engine 10 trades on a paper account and generates signals. No investment advice is provided. Subscribers receive signals; they decide what to do with them.